Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Everyone Already Has Coronavirus

The US death toll has just reached 60,000, proving the just-the-flu-mers wrong. The low ball predictions conservatives and LOLbertarians made that it may reach between 60 - 70 thousand total over the entire course of the disease. Average US death toll for seasonal flu is between 20 - 30 thousand. A very bad year may reach up to 60,000, but that's very rare. Of course the justtheflumers will say that "literally no one died from Coronavirus," and pretend that all these people died from obesity, diabetes, heart attacks, car accidents, and getting shot, but that's just because they can't admit to being wrong.

Justtheflumers - who in February told us that China was censoring data, that a million people in Wuhan had the disease and there were open air pits where thousands of bodies were being burned every day - are latching onto computer models that are saying 99% of cases are asymptomatic in an ever expanding attempt to reconcile the facts on the ground with their collapsing worldview that this disease is a nothingburger and is the result of a global Jewish conspiracy to institute communism or something. They're saying case fatality is 0.01%, roughly equivalent to seasonal flu.

These are also the same exact people who tell us computer models are bogus junk science and we can't believe their results when they predict catastrophic climate change or the hole in the ozone layer or literally anything else. But since the computer models agree with their preconceived notions this one time they're willing to believe them.

Right now, just looking at all the resolved cases, we're seeing that 1 in 5 resolved cases is a fatality. There is an 80% recovery rate and a 20% fatality rate so far. 227,000 fatalities and 993,000 recoveries to date.

In order to get to half that, 10% case fatality, we would have to assume there are an additional million recoveries and an additional 2 million active cases, bringing the case total to date to about 6-7 million with half not being reported because they are asymptomatic.

10% is still too high. Let's half that again by saying there have been 14 million cases total and a full 79% of cases were never reported because they were asymptomatic.

10% case fatality is still much worse than seasonal flu and wouldn't warrant reopening the world, so let's double it again. There have now been 28 million cases, only 3 million of which have been reported - just 11%. That brings us to 5% fatality. Still not enough.

Quadruple that. 112 million total cases, 3 million reported, or just 2.6%. The other 97.4% of all cases were asymptomatic, which is difficult to believe. There are just over 74 million resolved cases including the astounding 97% asymptomatic cases, with 227,000 fatalities, bringing case fatality to 0.3% - still higher than seasonal flu. Let's keep going.

To get to 0.01% fatality there would need to be 2,270,000,000 resolved cases, of which 99.87% were not reported. Also at this point the entire planet has been infected and we shouldn't see any new cases reported because everyone is either already sick, recovered, or dead. That's one hell of a file drawer into which unfavorable data is buried.

At this point it should be obvious that there cannot be a vast amount of unreported cases as new cases are still being reported. The idea that the entire planet has already been infected in four months is ludicrous on its face. So is the idea that all Coronavirus deaths are the result of comorbidities and that no healthy people have died. "The government gives states $39,000 for every person who dies of Coronavirus, so they're purposefully claiming ALL deaths are Coronavirus to cash in." These are the same people who believe in the Protocols of the Elders of Zion (which is available for sale on Amazon, along with books on every other antisemetic conspiracy theory, Mein Kampf, the Communist Manifesto, Mao's little red book, 9/11 "truth", flat Earth, Moon landing hoax, Holocaust denial, and literally every other conspiracy theory EXCEPT anything that questions Sandy Hook for some extremely suspicious reason).

In the push to find top-down conspiracies where some cabal of Jewish communists are scaring the world into becoming cave dwellers with an imaginary disease, the rich people who all work from home yet claim not to be afraid to go back to work - Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, Mark Dice, "self-made" Youtubes who e-beg $70,000 a year and call it capitalism - the same people who had been speaking rationally when the outbreak was confined to China are now talking like crazy people, because now their personal lives are inconvenienced by the virus, not just vague "people" out there somewhere.

No, states are not making stuff up to inflate the numbers to get more helicopter cash, lockdowns are not a conspiracy to institute global communism. The entire planet is not conspiring to lie about this disease. China is lying through their teeth, North Korea is lying, Iran flat out has collapsed and doesn't have the capacity to provide accurate information, most of the developing world is in the same boat. Sweden, the country that didn't lockdown, also has higher per-million death rate than the United States and has an overall population less than New York City, and so it is not a model for anything.