Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Herd Immunity is Bullshit

I was listening to Coast to Coast AM for the first time in over a year and I was so filled with rage that I had to spend the past full hour writing a rebuttal to the sheer amount of bullshit being spread by the professional bullshit artists on the show.

G. Edward Griffin is a charlatan, not an expert on anything.

*He believes in quack theories about cancer being an amygdalin deficiency that have been disproven

*He believes the HIV virus - which we have electron microscope pictures of - doesn't exist

*He believes that a mountain in Turkey that's 100% rock all the way through is literally Noah's Ark

Also, Coast staple Carnivora is a placebo. Reagan did not take it for coughing, he didn't take it at all, he took one of the ingredients in isolate for colon cancer and it didn't work because his cancer returned and he had to have several feet of intestine surgically removed.

To top it off, Griffin wants to infect 80% of the population with Covid. Even with a 1% fatality rate that's still 3 million people dead (and the 1% is me being generous, so far a full 16% of all resolved cases has ended with death). What's worse he wants to infect 300 million people at the same time to reach some magic bullshit called "herd immunity" (not real herd immunity, which would involve vaccinating tens of millions of people, but the magic bullshit variety of infecting 300 million people all at once and when the last person has died then everyone else will be naturally immune).

In South Korea they didn't sacrifice 500,000 people on the altar of herd immunity, they isolated the people who were sick, did contact tracing, implemented policies of basic respect for other people, and defeated the disease with only 10,000 people getting infected. That's just 0.018% of the total population - nowhere near the 80% professional bullshit artist Griffin wants to infect in the US. New cases are in the single or low double digits. Most of the population never had to come in contact with the disease and they've been able to relax restrictions to a sensible level and get the country up and running again. v With Smallpox we didn't sacrifice a billion people on the altar of herd immunity, we developed a vaccine to surround and contain outbreaks in ever smaller and smaller pockets, and when the last case was resolved it was over. Permanently. Most of the population never had to come in contact with the disease and now it's gone forever.

We could have taken sensible steps to defeat Covid in America like South Korea did, but this is 'Murica and we have freedumb and don't want to give up our freedumb necessary to do contact tracing and isolate potentially sick people! We got the 14th amendment or something. I don't know what any of the amendments are but I don't have to because I like to blow stuff up and look at big titties wrapped in the 'Murican flag and have other people's kids invade countries that are full of oil and die because this is 'Murica!

The herd immunity that Griffin believes in wouldn't even work because each time a virus divides it has the chance to mutate. Viruses divide millions of times inside each person they infect. Contact tracing and quarantining the potentially sick would afford the virus maybe a billion opportunities to mutate. Letting it infect 300 million people will give it a million trillion opportunities to mutate. What happens when the virus mutates? The immune system no longer recognizes it and a person who has recovered can get sick again. You would then have to re-infect EVERYONE to get the chance to develop herd immunity again. But oops! In infecting 300 million people again you've now developed five more mutations and everyone can get sick five more times and it infects everyone again and mutates again, and now the disease is permanent. You've now got a disease which wipes out 1% of the entire population of the planet every single year.

It's a heavy price to pay. I fully understand there are a lot of people living paycheck to paycheck who NEED to go back to work to put food on the table, and that NEED is translated in their minds to an erroneous DESIRE to work, but there are better solutions that letting 300 million people get infected at the same time. I also understand that there are rich people who either already work from home or are retired and want to send the wage slaves back into the economy because their 401k has depreciated, or because they've built up a reputation as big conservative with a puffed out chest and a bully pulpit, but fuck those people.

We can do contact tracing and quarantining the potentially infected, quarantine everyone voluntarily and let them go party out in the streets and go to golf courses and beaches and Mardi Gras and spread the infection, or we can sacrifice millions of people on the alter of bullshit and call it the new normal. I opt for the first choice, the puffed chests and charlatans opt for the third. And that's the way it is, 12 May 2020. Goodnight.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Everyone Already Has Coronavirus

The US death toll has just reached 60,000, proving the just-the-flu-mers wrong. The low ball predictions conservatives and LOLbertarians made that it may reach between 60 - 70 thousand total over the entire course of the disease. Average US death toll for seasonal flu is between 20 - 30 thousand. A very bad year may reach up to 60,000, but that's very rare. Of course the justtheflumers will say that "literally no one died from Coronavirus," and pretend that all these people died from obesity, diabetes, heart attacks, car accidents, and getting shot, but that's just because they can't admit to being wrong.

Justtheflumers - who in February told us that China was censoring data, that a million people in Wuhan had the disease and there were open air pits where thousands of bodies were being burned every day - are latching onto computer models that are saying 99% of cases are asymptomatic in an ever expanding attempt to reconcile the facts on the ground with their collapsing worldview that this disease is a nothingburger and is the result of a global Jewish conspiracy to institute communism or something. They're saying case fatality is 0.01%, roughly equivalent to seasonal flu.

These are also the same exact people who tell us computer models are bogus junk science and we can't believe their results when they predict catastrophic climate change or the hole in the ozone layer or literally anything else. But since the computer models agree with their preconceived notions this one time they're willing to believe them.

Right now, just looking at all the resolved cases, we're seeing that 1 in 5 resolved cases is a fatality. There is an 80% recovery rate and a 20% fatality rate so far. 227,000 fatalities and 993,000 recoveries to date.

In order to get to half that, 10% case fatality, we would have to assume there are an additional million recoveries and an additional 2 million active cases, bringing the case total to date to about 6-7 million with half not being reported because they are asymptomatic.

10% is still too high. Let's half that again by saying there have been 14 million cases total and a full 79% of cases were never reported because they were asymptomatic.

10% case fatality is still much worse than seasonal flu and wouldn't warrant reopening the world, so let's double it again. There have now been 28 million cases, only 3 million of which have been reported - just 11%. That brings us to 5% fatality. Still not enough.

Quadruple that. 112 million total cases, 3 million reported, or just 2.6%. The other 97.4% of all cases were asymptomatic, which is difficult to believe. There are just over 74 million resolved cases including the astounding 97% asymptomatic cases, with 227,000 fatalities, bringing case fatality to 0.3% - still higher than seasonal flu. Let's keep going.

To get to 0.01% fatality there would need to be 2,270,000,000 resolved cases, of which 99.87% were not reported. Also at this point the entire planet has been infected and we shouldn't see any new cases reported because everyone is either already sick, recovered, or dead. That's one hell of a file drawer into which unfavorable data is buried.

At this point it should be obvious that there cannot be a vast amount of unreported cases as new cases are still being reported. The idea that the entire planet has already been infected in four months is ludicrous on its face. So is the idea that all Coronavirus deaths are the result of comorbidities and that no healthy people have died. "The government gives states $39,000 for every person who dies of Coronavirus, so they're purposefully claiming ALL deaths are Coronavirus to cash in." These are the same people who believe in the Protocols of the Elders of Zion (which is available for sale on Amazon, along with books on every other antisemetic conspiracy theory, Mein Kampf, the Communist Manifesto, Mao's little red book, 9/11 "truth", flat Earth, Moon landing hoax, Holocaust denial, and literally every other conspiracy theory EXCEPT anything that questions Sandy Hook for some extremely suspicious reason).

In the push to find top-down conspiracies where some cabal of Jewish communists are scaring the world into becoming cave dwellers with an imaginary disease, the rich people who all work from home yet claim not to be afraid to go back to work - Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, Mark Dice, "self-made" Youtubes who e-beg $70,000 a year and call it capitalism - the same people who had been speaking rationally when the outbreak was confined to China are now talking like crazy people, because now their personal lives are inconvenienced by the virus, not just vague "people" out there somewhere.

No, states are not making stuff up to inflate the numbers to get more helicopter cash, lockdowns are not a conspiracy to institute global communism. The entire planet is not conspiring to lie about this disease. China is lying through their teeth, North Korea is lying, Iran flat out has collapsed and doesn't have the capacity to provide accurate information, most of the developing world is in the same boat. Sweden, the country that didn't lockdown, also has higher per-million death rate than the United States and has an overall population less than New York City, and so it is not a model for anything.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

The Calculus of Human Lives

stonks

This is literally the stupidest thing any President has done in my lifetime since Clinton sold our factories to China. Sending people back to work because "muh stonks" is guaranteed to kill 3 million people at least from Coronavirus plus millions more from other causes because the hospitals will be overrun.

And this is ME saying this. I've been a Trump superfan from day 1. I've wanted Trump to be President since 1999. But seriously, Trump needs to stop listening to LOLbertarian "influencers" and listen to actual doctors when dealing with this pandemic.

Come on, we can shut everything down for 40 days to get the disease under control, give the people the $1200 so they can survive the 40 days, and then when this is fixed open the businesses again, hire the people back, and the Fed can inject liquidity into the market like it's been doing and artificially raise the stock value back to 29,000 again in a couple months.

With case fatality what it is, if we do nothing and 60 million people get infected (a low estimate) that means 3 million deaths just from Covid-19. That's not including other deaths from easily preventable causes that could have been avoided had the hospitals not been overwhelmed. If we do nothing and go back to business as usual then every heart attack and stroke, and major car accidents will be a death sentence because all medical personnel will be treating Covid-19 patients. Is the economic damage of keeping everyone at home for 40 days worth the cost of permanently removing 3 million+ people from the workforce? Employees who are laid off can be rehired, dead people can't be brought back.

The number of infected is doubling every 3 days in the US. That means if we all go back to work and pretend "It's just the flu" that there will be 81 million people infected in 33 days. We've already seen the number of cases world-wide double in the past 7 days from 200,000 to now 422,000, and at this rate it will be close to 1 million by the end of the month, just 7 days away. And the rate of new infections is increasing even faster in the US (spreading twice as fast as it did in China, where the disease started). 20% develop serious complications. That's 16 million people out of work and in hospitals that are already operating at capacity because, apparently, the US economy, which is "The strongest it's ever been in history", is so fragile that it cannot be put on hold for 40 days.

I understand "It's just old people" (until the hospitals are overrun, then young people will start dying too as there aren't enough doctors or supplies to go around), and millionaires like Glenn Beck and the Texas governor who work from home anyway "Would rather die than kill the country," but isn't that just the height of hypocrisy coming from the same people who railed against the "death panels" in Obamacare? "We're pro-life, we value the lives of old people, it's immoral for the bean counters to decide who lives and dies." Was that argument always a partisan lie or was it always a partisan lie? It's the same BS as when the "anti-war" Democrats all of a sudden vanished the day Obama took office and he kept up the same Bush neo-lib policies of world policing "Because now our man is in the White House".

And I hated Bush, I hated Obama, I hate policing the world and socialized medicine that forces people to wait in line to get on the list to wait in line to see a doctor, and I voted for Trump as the first person running for President in my lifetime who I actually liked, but this is madness.

"They'll put me out of my home if I can't pay my mortgage/rent!"

Most places with lockdowns have made it explicitly clear that these are extraordinary circumstances and people will not be left homeless or have their utilities shut off, and in places where these basic protections are not in place for the average person then it is the responsibility of the government to ensure that no one is made homeless because of this disease.

"I'm not scared! I want to return to work because I've made shit financial decisions and Orange Drumpfler's check won't pay off all my debt/I'm bored!"

That's exactly the attitude that has turned the West to shit. The selfish, atomized individual who cares not for society, because it's not like I have to live in society, right? The West is precisely in this mess because people have abandoned God and have given up on their communities. They've traded social ties for cheap Chinese garbage at Walmart (who knew the apocalypse would be made in China?), and real human interactions for Netflix, and that's why divorce rates, drug use, suicide, obesity, heart disease, alcoholism, rates of STDs, homelessness, single mothers on welfare who vote for out of control big government because the state has replaced husbands and fathers, and uncontrolled illegal immigration are through the roof and the middle class has vanished. People are too selfish to sit at home for 40 days and don't care if anyone else dies, because it's some other poor fool dying, not them.

Right now we have a chance to get the disease under control. We can shelter in place for long enough to start mass-producing masks, Chloroquine tablets, test kits, and other PPE and accoutrements necessary to treat people, and make sure that the majority of the people who are currently sick are cured. This should be about 40-60 days provided the measures we take aren't half-assed. After that we can start letting people get back to work, beginning with the people who have already survived the disease and have antibodies built up (who can theoretically go back as soon as possible and don't even need to wait the full duration of the quarantine). After that the economy should recover a good 70-80% before the election in November and Trump will win in a massive landslide having survived impeachment and being hailed as an untouchable hero who beat the Coronavirus.

If we don't treat this with the seriousness that it deserves and try to "get back to work" to keep the economy, I mean "country" from dying, because the US economy is apparently a house of cards that can't be put on hold for 40 days, we run the risk of turning every city into New York, with tens of thousands of cases and hospitals overflowing. The second wave of the disease, produced by our own hubris, will be much worse than the first, and we'll have to wait for it to burn through the population and kill millions. The cost of half-assing, or even quarter-assing this is the risk of turning a recession into a major depression from which the US may never recover.

So yes, if you are really pro-life and opposed to death panels, and even if you do value your stonks, the safer bet is to wait this out for just a little while rather than pretending it is just a nothing burger that's no worse than the flu and that it's okay for grandma and grandpa to die because they're just Social Security useless eaters anyway as long as the economy looks good on paper.

#NotDying4WallStreet

Friday, March 20, 2020

China's Coronavirus

If I may indulge in a thought experiment. There are now a quarter of a million cases of Coronavirus worldwide with over 10,000 deaths. The disease is in the exponential phase of its growth and it looks like there will be 500,000 cases by early April, even if all the right steps are taken to contain it.

China's economy is a house of cards, the value of the Yuan is an illusion. There are tens of millions of surplus men who Chinese Communist Party needs to keep occupied. They must have 10% GDP growth per year to keep control over their vast, crumbling empire. And things in China are crumbling. Whole ghost cities are being built in the desert out of plywood, chicken wire, and spray on cement. Apartments lie empty because the rent is in the millions, and after a few years of abandonment they collapse from neglect due to their shoddy construction. Sometimes whole buildings just fall over.





Since Nixon no one dared challenge the Chinese. Clinton sold all US heavy industry to China. They steal our patents for decades and no one fights back. China has seen more economic growth in the period between 2001 when they were allowed to join the World Trade Organization until 2016 than the US did in 200 years.

Trump takes power and fights back with tariffs. China devalues its currency in retaliation but it doesn't help. Their economy is still declining. Every attempt to remove Trump from office fails: faithless electors, Russiagate, pee-peegate. The Shampeachment fails and Trump's popularity soars to its highest in 4 years. All the Democrat candidates are unpopular and have health problems. There is no legit way to remove him from office and he will get 4 more years to hammer China further into the ground. We saw the tremendous response Trump got during his trip to India. Production may move there and destroy China's standing as the factory of the world.

The CCP is desperate. They have only one card to play: Trump is the economy president. If the US economy collapses he will lose in 2020. China then ALLOWS a crippling disease to escape their only BSL-4 lab in Wuhan and it spreads throughout the world.

Most bio-weapons do not kill. The best weapons, like Q fever & tularemia, are highly infectious & incapacitate victims but do not kill, so the enemy can be defeated with little physical force. Wuhan Virus is the same. China does not want to kill Americans, or even Trump, they just want to collapse the US economy so Trump will not get re-elected and China will be unchallenged economic hegemon of the world.

The CCP murdered 80+ million of its own people in 1950s and 60s. They would think nothing of infecting 100,000 Chinese with Wuhan Virus if it meant the US economy would collapse. It's a small price to pay to assure Trump's defeat.

I'm not saying this is what happened, but it does put everything into perspective. China could have ended the pandemic in December, but they chose to let it spread around the world. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Coronavirus Pandemic

China has been doing all it can to disguise the fact that 1. the 2019-nCoV virus was manufactured in the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, and 2. that the virus has spread beyond the CCP's control.

China's various efforts to disguise the true extent of the pandemic include:

•Re-defining what constitutes a case of coronavirus to include only people who test positive for the disease and are presenting symptoms, knowing that it can take days or even weeks before symptoms to manifest while the person is still infectious, allowing them to spread the virus even farther.

•Pressuring the World Health Organization to call anyone other than official, credentialed presstitutes talking about the disease, basic prepping, or wanting to restrict travel of people suspected to have come in contact with the virus as spreading "anti-Chinese racism".

•Lying that the coronavirus is safer than seasonal flu.

•Deliberately releasing "official" statistics that are lower than they are in reality to make it appear that the disease is under control and that rate of new cases is slowing down.

•Re-naming the disease as a new form of SARS, which was so ineffectual that it had become a joke not long after the outbreak had ended.

The WHO is more concerned about waycism than preventing the spread of a deadly disease, which is its entire raison d'ĂȘtre.



Seen in the screenshot below, with the archived link here, the spread of the disease is definitely not slowing down. In fact, we have now seen 15,000 new cases being reported in a single day, bringing the total to near 60,000.

nCoV

Of course, I've archived the link because we know China has thousands of people who are paid specifically to censor Wikipedia articles so people think the most butcherous regime that has ever existed is loving puppy dogs and sunshine. They even say it in the terminology they use for things, like the invasion of Tibet is called "peaceful liberation." Sure, two million people were murdered, but they were murdered peacefully because they were Western imperialists, when the only Westerners in the whole country were two expat Austrian mountaineers who sought asylum in Tibet to escape a British POW camp in India.

At this rate we will definitely see 100,000 cases by the end of the week, with real totals being much higher. Maybe a million cases by the end of the month. The disease may only have a two percent case fatality, but two percent of a million is still 20,000, and worse a fifth of all cases lead to serious viral pneumonia that require four to six weeks of hospitalization. If you remove 200,000 people from the workforce for a month while tens of millions remain under quarantine you collapse the economy. China could very well sink into an economic depression that would drag the rest of the world with it.

God help us if it spreads to other countries. Only a few travelers from China were quarantined in India. If it manages to get out there will be millions of cases and any form of containment will be impossible. India can't round up people on the streets and break their necks if they don't comply, or put 400 million people on lock down in an attempt to keep the disease from spreading.

An infected person was accidentally released, temporarily, on the streets of San Diego, California before being brought back to the hospital. Parts of California are like fourth world countries, where leprosy and bubonic plague are endemic and a third of all America's homeless are allowed to defecate and shoot heroin in the streets. If nCoV got lose in San Francisco it would burn through the city in weeks with nothing to stop it.



Saturday, February 1, 2020

Brexit Day

"There's an historic battle going on right now across the West: in Europe, America, and elsewhere. It is globalism against populism. And you may loathe populism, but I tell you a funny thing, it's becoming very popular."

Nigel Farage, 2020 AD

After he said that Mr. Farage and a group of other Britishers, not Europeans, were bullied by this really nasty clipped-haired bitch who has some sort of power within the EU.

After three and a half years the British government has finally gotten off their asses, put some powdered wigs on, ate that penance they call food, and left the European Union. The UK has regained its sovereignty after being a vassal of Fuhrer Merkel's Fourth Reich for 27 years. Make no mistake, Germany has been trying to conquer Europe since the days of the "Holy Roman Empire" a thousand years ago. After two world wars the free peoples of Europe were tired of fighting and gave up without firing a shot as the newly reunified Germany gained control of the continent through socialist treaties promising free shit to an aging population tired of working.

Britain used to be a superpower. Britannia ruled the waves and controlled 1/4 of the world's land area, more territory than the entire surface of the Moon, and with the exception of some rabble-rousers across the pond, Britannia was the undefeated and undisputed master of the world for nearly two centuries. Unquestionably, the British Empire spread reason and justice across the world, ending barbaric practices in her colonies such as sati, the Hindu practice of throwing a widow onto the funeral pyre of her dead husband to preserve her honor. This was back in the age when people understood that even if a barbaric practice was part of someone's culture it could still be wrong and needed to be abolished.

Brexit was only the beginning. Britain will do fine. Britain has the fifth largest economy in the world and now that it has become unshackled from EU regulations there's nowhere left to go but up. Meanwhile, EU member states are faltering. Rioters are burning the streets of Paris, half the superstate is bankrupt and living off welfare, and the endless invasion from the third world is pushing states like Poland and Hungary toward escape as well. Right now the EU is a house of cards waiting to collapse, and it's only a matter of time, and I suspect a short few years, before more states seek to reclaim their own sovereignty and follow Britain's lead. Greece will likely remain sucking on the tit of socialism forever, but if France were to leave the EU would collapse overnight, and with it Merkle's dream of a pan-European army.

However long it takes is not important. Britain waited almost four years for freedom, and now one of the greatest civilizations in all of history has begun on the path of reclaiming a brilliant future of peace and prosperity. God bless Britannia and her people.

Sunday, January 26, 2020

Coronavirus and the Collapse of China



Last December a "novel strain" of coronavirus (officially "2019-nCoV") popped up allegedly in a fish market in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million people. The city also has a biohazard laboratory that was set up in 2018 to study diseases such as SARS and Ebola. Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory was, in fact, the only such lab in China that the CCP wanted us to know about that was designed to research Biosafety Level 4 pathogens in the whole country. Prior to its creation real scientists in real institutes, not party apparatchiks chosen for their loyalty, warned that Chinese labs were notorious for diseases escaping and that the Wuhan facility was about as safe as a wet paper bag.

Of course, if you believe that this fact is anything more than a coincidence you are a conspiracy theorist and a racist, but those words mean nothing to me, so fuck it, I'm saying it, that's a pretty big fucking coincidence.

"Officially" there are as of right now (Midnight EST, 26 January) 2,028 infected with 56 deaths. However, seven hours ago I checked and it said there were 57 deaths and just a few minutes later when I refreshed the page the number changed to 42, so either 15 people came back to life or China is censoring the Internet. The disease has an "official" fatality rate of about 3%, but boots on the ground citizen journalists are reporting a fatality rate of about 15% (see above video). Leaked videos are showing people collapsing in the streets, and one nurse in the area claims the real number of infected has already reached 90,000.

Lunar New Year celebrations have been canceled. This is huge, as this is by far the largest holiday in China. Wuhan and 11 other cities in Hubei Province have been quarantined, travel throughout the whole country is being restricted, the US is pulling officials out of China. The hospital system is already starting to collapse as the number of sick are rapidly outnumbering the available staff and supplies.

We've seen something like this happen before. In 2000 the Department of Justice (Homeland Security didn't exist yet), the CDC, and a number of other organizations got together and ran a sort of wargame involving disaster preparedness to see what would happen if bioterrorists attacked the United States. It was called "TOPOFF" for "Top Officials". The exercise ran for four days, by which time the simulated disease that was released in Denver had spread to the UK and Japan and infected 3,700 people and killed 950. By that point the health infrastructure had ceased to function and the entire state of Colorado was quarantined and the ten day exercise was ended early. No country in the world is prepared for a major epidemic of the sort that was seen in 1918 when H1N1 infected a quarter of the world's population and killed up to 100 million people.

This is real. A potential 0.1 degree increase in global temperatures by 2100 and "glaciers disappearing by 2020" are nothing to worry about, a disease that has already spread to 13 countries with a rate of infection at least equivalent to the flu and a fatality at least twice as high really is something to be concerned about. There's the potential for millions to become infected before this burns itself out, and even with a 3% fatality that's tens of thousands of deaths. The 2014 Ebola outbreak killed at least 11,000 people (more likely double or triple that), and Ebola is very difficult to transmit. Coronavirus could kill ten times as many people before people start to take this seriously, and by that point it will be too late.